Oh, Shit.

From the NYTimes:

"Serbs in Kosovo Vow to Remain Part of Serbia."

It is logical, of course. If the international community recognizes the independence of Kosovo on the basis of its largely Albanian population and its mistreatment at the hands of the Serbs, then it would be blatantly two-faced not to recognize a similar claim by the Serb population of Northern Kosovo to join Serbia on precisely the same grounds.

We are seeing precisely the same dynamic occurred when Croatia's independence was quickly recognized, as the expense of the Krajina Serbs. That dynamic sparked a bloody four-year war. Will the West learn the lessons of history?

Kosovo Redux

More evidence that rumors of a new blood-bath in the Balkans, following Kosovo’s recent pledge to declare independence have been greatly exaggerated:

Al Jazeera reported today: “The Serbian government has threatened to go to the International Court of Justice to prevent Kosovo from being recognised as a state.”

This move, an appeal to an international body that has less power than the Pet Court, underscores Serbia’s unwillingness to prevent Kosovar secession by force.

Negotiators could not have openly agreed to independence, but nor will the central government revisit 1998-1999 through a military effort to prevent it. Too much is at stake with efforts to join the EU. The Kosovoar Albanians know this and had no incentive to compromise, which is why talks failed.

What we are likely to see here is a peaceful transition overseen by the international community. Nations that opposed the JNA’s suppression of the Kosovar Albanians’ uprising in the 1990s will recognize an independent Kosovo. Those that fear setting a precedent vis a vis their own secessionist movements will hem and haw in the General Assembly and fail to recognize Kosovo. And life will go on.